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Al Malaab El Libby vs Al Watan — Premier League 2019

Al Malaab El Libby
Al Malaab El Libby
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al Watan
Al Watan
12/24/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Group A - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Malaab El Libby36%
×Draw30%
Al Watan34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Malaab El Libby
1.04
Al Watan
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 17 away

creates per match

Al Malaab El Libby
0.78
Al Watan
1.00

allows per match

Al Malaab El Libby
1.00
Al Watan
1.29

finishing

Al Malaab El Libby+0.00on par
Al Watan+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Malaab El Libby ↓

Al Watan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Malaab El Libby or draw
66%
Al Malaab El Libby or Al Watan
70%
Draw or Al Watan
64%

Winning margin

Al Malaab El Libby wins by 2+
14%
Al Watan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al Malaab El Libby 1+ goals
65%
Al Malaab El Libby 2+ goals
28%
Al Malaab El Libby 3+ goals
9%
Al Watan 1+ goals
63%
Al Watan 2+ goals
26%
Al Watan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Malaab El Libby (draw refunded)
51%
Al Watan (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Malaab El Libby at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.00 · 27 matches

Al Watan away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Malaab El Libby attack 0.78 + Al Watan defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.04

Al Watan attack 1.00 + Al Malaab El Libby defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Malaab El Libby scores more
36%
level
30%
Al Watan scores more
34%

Al Malaab El Libby at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al Malaab El Libby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Malaab El Libby 1–1 Al Watan

Al Malaab El Libby and Al Watan drew 1-1 in Premier League on December 24, 2025.