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Al Malaab El Libby vs Al Ahli Tripoli — Premier League 2019

Al Malaab El Libby
Al Malaab El Libby
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al Ahli Tripoli
Al Ahli Tripoli
2/10/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Al Malaab El Libby19%
×Draw31%
Al Ahli Tripoli50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Malaab El Libby
0.62
Al Ahli Tripoli
1.18

Al Ahli Tripoli creates 90% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 72 away

creates per match

Al Malaab El Libby
0.78
Al Ahli Tripoli
1.35

allows per match

Al Malaab El Libby
1.00
Al Ahli Tripoli
0.46

finishing

Al Malaab El Libby+0.00on par
Al Ahli Tripoli+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Malaab El Libby ↓

Al Ahli Tripoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–120%
0–212%
0–35%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Al Malaab El Libby or draw
50%
Al Malaab El Libby or Al Ahli Tripoli
69%
Draw or Al Ahli Tripoli
81%

Winning margin

Al Malaab El Libby wins by 2+
5%
Al Ahli Tripoli wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Al Malaab El Libby 1+ goals
46%
Al Malaab El Libby 2+ goals
13%
Al Malaab El Libby 3+ goals
3%
Al Ahli Tripoli 1+ goals
69%
Al Ahli Tripoli 2+ goals
33%
Al Ahli Tripoli 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al Malaab El Libby (draw refunded)
28%
Al Ahli Tripoli (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Malaab El Libby at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.00 · 27 matches

Al Ahli Tripoli away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Malaab El Libby attack 0.78 + Al Ahli Tripoli defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.62

Al Ahli Tripoli attack 1.35 + Al Malaab El Libby defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al Malaab El Libby scores more
19%
level
31%
Al Ahli Tripoli scores more
50%

Al Ahli Tripoli at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al Ahli Tripoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Malaab El Libby 0–1 Al Ahli Tripoli

Al Ahli Tripoli beat Al Malaab El Libby 1-0 in Premier League on February 10, 2024.