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Al Mahdia vs Al Ta'awon — Premier League 2019

Al Mahdia
Al Mahdia
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Al Ta'awon
Al Ta'awon
1/23/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · East - 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Al Mahdia28%
×Draw26%
Al Ta'awon47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Mahdia
1.10
Al Ta'awon
1.51

Al Ta'awon creates 37% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 53 away

creates per match

Al Mahdia
0.71
Al Ta'awon
1.02

allows per match

Al Mahdia
2.00
Al Ta'awon
1.49

finishing

Al Mahdia+0.00on par
Al Ta'awon+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Mahdia ↓

Al Ta'awon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Mahdia or draw
53%
Al Mahdia or Al Ta'awon
74%
Draw or Al Ta'awon
72%

Winning margin

Al Mahdia wins by 2+
11%
Al Ta'awon wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Al Mahdia 1+ goals
67%
Al Mahdia 2+ goals
30%
Al Mahdia 3+ goals
10%
Al Ta'awon 1+ goals
78%
Al Ta'awon 2+ goals
44%
Al Ta'awon 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Al Mahdia (draw refunded)
37%
Al Ta'awon (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Mahdia at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Al Ta'awon away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.49 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Mahdia attack 0.71 + Al Ta'awon defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.10

Al Ta'awon attack 1.02 + Al Mahdia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al Mahdia scores more
28%
level
26%
Al Ta'awon scores more
47%

Al Ta'awon at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al Ta'awon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Mahdia 0–3 Al Ta'awon

Al Ta'awon beat Al Mahdia 3-0 in Premier League on January 23, 2025.