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Al Mahdia vs Al-Andalus — Premier League 2019

Al Mahdia
Al Mahdia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Andalus
Al-Andalus
12/26/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · East - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Al Mahdia42%
×Draw26%
Al-Andalus32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Mahdia
1.46
Al-Andalus
1.25

Al Mahdia creates 17% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

Al Mahdia
0.71
Al-Andalus
0.50

allows per match

Al Mahdia
2.00
Al-Andalus
2.21

finishing

Al Mahdia+0.00on par
Al-Andalus+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Mahdia ↓

Al-Andalus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al Mahdia or draw
68%
Al Mahdia or Al-Andalus
74%
Draw or Al-Andalus
58%

Winning margin

Al Mahdia wins by 2+
20%
Al-Andalus wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al Mahdia 1+ goals
77%
Al Mahdia 2+ goals
43%
Al Mahdia 3+ goals
18%
Al-Andalus 1+ goals
71%
Al-Andalus 2+ goals
36%
Al-Andalus 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al Mahdia (draw refunded)
56%
Al-Andalus (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Mahdia at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Al-Andalus away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Mahdia attack 0.71 + Al-Andalus defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.46

Al-Andalus attack 0.50 + Al Mahdia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Mahdia scores more
42%
level
26%
Al-Andalus scores more
32%

Al Mahdia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Mahdia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Mahdia vs Al-Andalus

Al Mahdia and Al-Andalus drew 0-0 in Premier League on December 26, 2024.