Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al-Magd vs Al Shomooa SC — Premier League 2019

Al-Magd
Al-Magd
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al Shomooa SC
Al Shomooa SC
2/4/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Group B - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Al-Magd38%
×Draw27%
Al Shomooa SC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Magd
1.31
Al Shomooa SC
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

creates per match

Al-Magd
1.13
Al Shomooa SC
1.63

allows per match

Al-Magd
0.88
Al Shomooa SC
1.50

finishing

Al-Magd+0.00on par
Al Shomooa SC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Magd ↓

Al Shomooa SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al-Magd or draw
65%
Al-Magd or Al Shomooa SC
73%
Draw or Al Shomooa SC
62%

Winning margin

Al-Magd wins by 2+
17%
Al Shomooa SC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al-Magd 1+ goals
73%
Al-Magd 2+ goals
38%
Al-Magd 3+ goals
14%
Al Shomooa SC 1+ goals
71%
Al Shomooa SC 2+ goals
36%
Al Shomooa SC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al-Magd (draw refunded)
52%
Al Shomooa SC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Magd at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Al Shomooa SC away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Magd attack 1.13 + Al Shomooa SC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Al Shomooa SC attack 1.63 + Al-Magd defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al-Magd scores more
38%
level
27%
Al Shomooa SC scores more
35%

Al-Magd at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al-Magd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Magd vs Al Shomooa SC

Al-Magd and Al Shomooa SC drew 1-1 in Premier League on February 4, 2026.