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Al-Magd vs Abilashehar — Premier League 2019

Al-Magd
Al-Magd
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Abilashehar
Abilashehar
4/15/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Group B - 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Al-Magd45%
×Draw31%
Abilashehar24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Magd
1.17
Abilashehar
0.76

Al-Magd creates 54% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

creates per match

Al-Magd
1.13
Abilashehar
0.63

allows per match

Al-Magd
0.88
Abilashehar
1.21

finishing

Al-Magd+0.00on par
Abilashehar+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Magd ↓

Abilashehar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al-Magd or draw
76%
Al-Magd or Abilashehar
69%
Draw or Abilashehar
55%

Winning margin

Al-Magd wins by 2+
20%
Abilashehar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al-Magd 1+ goals
69%
Al-Magd 2+ goals
33%
Al-Magd 3+ goals
11%
Abilashehar 1+ goals
53%
Abilashehar 2+ goals
18%
Abilashehar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al-Magd (draw refunded)
66%
Abilashehar (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Magd at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Abilashehar away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Magd attack 1.13 + Abilashehar defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Abilashehar attack 0.63 + Al-Magd defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al-Magd scores more
45%
level
31%
Abilashehar scores more
24%

Al-Magd at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al-Magd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al-Magd 1–0 Abilashehar

Al-Magd beat Abilashehar 1-0 in Premier League on April 15, 2026.