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Al-Madina vs Rafeeq — Premier League 2019

Al-Madina
Al-Madina
FT
1 – 0
Rafeeq
Rafeeq
4/28/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al-Madina55%
×Draw26%
Rafeeq19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Madina
1.48
Rafeeq
0.74

Al-Madina creates 100% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 11 away

creates per match

Al-Madina
1.24
Rafeeq
0.55

allows per match

Al-Madina
0.94
Rafeeq
1.73

finishing

Al-Madina+0.00on par
Rafeeq+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Madina ↓

Rafeeq →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al-Madina or draw
81%
Al-Madina or Rafeeq
74%
Draw or Rafeeq
45%

Winning margin

Al-Madina wins by 2+
28%
Rafeeq wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Al-Madina 1+ goals
77%
Al-Madina 2+ goals
43%
Al-Madina 3+ goals
19%
Rafeeq 1+ goals
52%
Rafeeq 2+ goals
17%
Rafeeq 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al-Madina (draw refunded)
75%
Rafeeq (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Madina at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.94 · 66 matches

Rafeeq away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Madina attack 1.24 + Rafeeq defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.48

Rafeeq attack 0.55 + Al-Madina defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Al-Madina scores more
55%
level
26%
Rafeeq scores more
19%

Al-Madina at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al-Madina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al-Madina 1–0 Rafeeq

Al-Madina beat Rafeeq 1-0 in Premier League on April 28, 2021.