Al-Madina 0–1 Assabah SC: Result & Stats

Al-Madina

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Assabah SC

2/7/2026

Premier League · Group A - 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Al-Madina38%

×Draw32%

Assabah SC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-MadinaExpected goals in this matchAssabah SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

0.86

Al-Madina

1.01

Assabah SC

0.86

Al-Madina creates 17% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 9 away

1.24

creates per match

0.78

0.94

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Al-Madina

1.24

Assabah SC

0.78

allows per match

Al-Madina

0.94

Assabah SC

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Madina+0.00on par

Assabah SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Madina ↓

Assabah SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Al-Madina or draw

70%

Al-Madina or Assabah SC

68%

Draw or Assabah SC

62%

Winning margin

Al-Madina wins by 2+

15%

Assabah SC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al-Madina 1+ goals

64%

Al-Madina 2+ goals

27%

Al-Madina 3+ goals

8%

Assabah SC 1+ goals

58%

Assabah SC 2+ goals

21%

Assabah SC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Al-Madina (draw refunded)

56%

Assabah SC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Madina at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.94 · 66 matches

Assabah SC away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Madina attack 1.24 + Assabah SC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.01

Assabah SC attack 0.78 + Al-Madina defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al-Madina scores more

38%

level

32%

Assabah SC scores more

30%

Al-Madina at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al-Madina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff