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Al-Madina vs Al Watan — Premier League 2019

Al-Madina
Al-Madina
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Watan
Al Watan
2/21/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Group A - 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al-Madina43%
×Draw28%
Al Watan28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Madina
1.27
Al Watan
0.97

Al-Madina creates 31% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 17 away

creates per match

Al-Madina
1.24
Al Watan
1.00

allows per match

Al-Madina
0.94
Al Watan
1.29

finishing

Al-Madina+0.00on par
Al Watan+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Madina ↓

Al Watan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al-Madina or draw
72%
Al-Madina or Al Watan
72%
Draw or Al Watan
57%

Winning margin

Al-Madina wins by 2+
19%
Al Watan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al-Madina 1+ goals
72%
Al-Madina 2+ goals
36%
Al-Madina 3+ goals
14%
Al Watan 1+ goals
62%
Al Watan 2+ goals
25%
Al Watan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al-Madina (draw refunded)
60%
Al Watan (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Madina at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.94 · 66 matches

Al Watan away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Madina attack 1.24 + Al Watan defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Al Watan attack 1.00 + Al-Madina defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al-Madina scores more
43%
level
28%
Al Watan scores more
28%

Al-Madina at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al-Madina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al-Madina 2–1 Al Watan

Al-Madina beat Al Watan 2-1 in Premier League on February 21, 2026.