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Al-Madina vs Abilashehar — Premier League 2019

Al-Madina
Al-Madina
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Abilashehar
Abilashehar
4/6/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · West - 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al-Madina47%
×Draw30%
Abilashehar24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Madina
1.23
Abilashehar
0.78

Al-Madina creates 58% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 19 away

creates per match

Al-Madina
1.24
Abilashehar
0.63

allows per match

Al-Madina
0.94
Abilashehar
1.21

finishing

Al-Madina+0.00on par
Abilashehar+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Madina ↓

Abilashehar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al-Madina or draw
76%
Al-Madina or Abilashehar
70%
Draw or Abilashehar
53%

Winning margin

Al-Madina wins by 2+
21%
Abilashehar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al-Madina 1+ goals
71%
Al-Madina 2+ goals
35%
Al-Madina 3+ goals
13%
Abilashehar 1+ goals
54%
Abilashehar 2+ goals
18%
Abilashehar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al-Madina (draw refunded)
67%
Abilashehar (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Madina at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.94 · 66 matches

Abilashehar away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Madina attack 1.24 + Abilashehar defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Abilashehar attack 0.63 + Al-Madina defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al-Madina scores more
47%
level
30%
Abilashehar scores more
24%

Al-Madina at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al-Madina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al-Madina 2–2 Abilashehar

Al-Madina and Abilashehar drew 2-2 in Premier League on April 6, 2025.