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Al Kuwait vs Kazma — Crown Prince Cup 2020

Al Kuwait
Al Kuwaitadvanced
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Kazma
Kazma
4/28/2025Crown Prince CupCrown Prince Cup · Semi-finalsJaber Al-Mubarak Al-Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al Kuwait73%
×Draw14%
Kazma13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Kuwait
3.08
Kazma
1.25

Al Kuwait creates 146% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Al Kuwait
3.50
Kazma
2.00

allows per match

Al Kuwait
0.50
Kazma
2.67

finishing

Al Kuwait+0.00on par
Kazma+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Kuwait ↓

Kazma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Al Kuwait or draw
87%
Al Kuwait or Kazma
86%
Draw or Kazma
27%

Winning margin

Al Kuwait wins by 2+
53%
Kazma wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Al Kuwait 1+ goals
95%
Al Kuwait 2+ goals
81%
Al Kuwait 3+ goals
58%
Kazma 1+ goals
71%
Kazma 2+ goals
36%
Kazma 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al Kuwait (draw refunded)
85%
Kazma (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Kuwait at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Kazma away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Kuwait attack 3.50 + Kazma defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 3.08

Kazma attack 2.00 + Al Kuwait defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Al Kuwait scores more
73%
level
14%
Kazma scores more
13%

Al Kuwait at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Al Kuwait will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Crown Prince Cup: Al Kuwait 4–2 Kazma

Al Kuwait beat Kazma 4-2 in Crown Prince Cup on April 28, 2025.

The match was played at Jaber Al-Mubarak Al-Hamad Stadium in Kuwait City.