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Al Kholood vs Najran — Division 1 2018

Al Kholood
Al Kholood
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Najran
Najran
1/2/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 15Ar-Rass Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Al Kholood43%
×Draw29%
Najran28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Kholood
1.25
Najran
0.94

Al Kholood creates 33% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 77 away

creates per match

Al Kholood
1.26
Najran
1.10

allows per match

Al Kholood
0.77
Najran
1.23

finishing

Al Kholood+0.00on par
Najran+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Kholood ↓

Najran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Kholood or draw
72%
Al Kholood or Najran
71%
Draw or Najran
57%

Winning margin

Al Kholood wins by 2+
19%
Najran wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Kholood 1+ goals
71%
Al Kholood 2+ goals
36%
Al Kholood 3+ goals
13%
Najran 1+ goals
61%
Najran 2+ goals
24%
Najran 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Kholood (draw refunded)
61%
Najran (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Kholood at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.77 · 53 matches

Najran away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.23 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Kholood attack 1.26 + Najran defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Najran attack 1.10 + Al Kholood defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Kholood scores more
43%
level
29%
Najran scores more
28%

Al Kholood at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Kholood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Kholood 0–1 Najran

Najran beat Al Kholood 1-0 in Division 1 on January 2, 2023.

The match was played at Ar-Rass Stadium in Rass.