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Al Kholood vs Al Najma — Pro League 2018

Al Kholood
Al Kholood
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Al Najma
Al Najma
10/17/2025Pro LeaguePro League · Round 5Al-Hazem Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Kholood51%
×Draw23%
Al Najma25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Kholood
1.77
Al Najma
1.18

Al Kholood creates 50% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Al Kholood
1.18
Al Najma
0.65

allows per match

Al Kholood
1.71
Al Najma
2.35

finishing

Al Kholood+0.00on par
Al Najma+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Kholood ↓

Al Najma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Al Kholood or draw
75%
Al Kholood or Al Najma
77%
Draw or Al Najma
49%

Winning margin

Al Kholood wins by 2+
28%
Al Najma wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Kholood 1+ goals
83%
Al Kholood 2+ goals
53%
Al Kholood 3+ goals
26%
Al Najma 1+ goals
69%
Al Najma 2+ goals
33%
Al Najma 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al Kholood (draw refunded)
67%
Al Najma (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Kholood at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

Al Najma away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Kholood attack 1.18 + Al Najma defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.77

Al Najma attack 0.65 + Al Kholood defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Al Kholood scores more
51%
level
23%
Al Najma scores more
25%

Al Kholood at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Al Kholood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League: Al Kholood 5–1 Al Najma

Al Kholood beat Al Najma 5-1 in Pro League on October 17, 2025.

The match was played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium in Ar Rass.