Al Kholood 1–0 Al Jandal: Result & Stats

Al Kholood

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Jandal

9/15/2023

Division 1 · Round 5Ar-Rass Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Al Kholood52%

×Draw26%

Al Jandal22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al KholoodExpected goals in this matchAl Jandal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.86

Al Kholood

1.48

Al Jandal

0.86

Al Kholood creates 72% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 51 away

1.26

creates per match

0.96

0.77

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Al Kholood

1.26

Al Jandal

0.96

allows per match

Al Kholood

0.77

Al Jandal

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Kholood+0.00on par

Al Jandal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Kholood ↓

Al Jandal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Al Kholood or draw

78%

Al Kholood or Al Jandal

74%

Draw or Al Jandal

48%

Winning margin

Al Kholood wins by 2+

26%

Al Jandal wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Al Kholood 1+ goals

77%

Al Kholood 2+ goals

43%

Al Kholood 3+ goals

19%

Al Jandal 1+ goals

58%

Al Jandal 2+ goals

21%

Al Jandal 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Al Kholood (draw refunded)

70%

Al Jandal (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Kholood at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.77 · 53 matches

Al Jandal away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.71 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Kholood attack 1.26 + Al Jandal defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.48

Al Jandal attack 0.96 + Al Kholood defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Al Kholood scores more

52%

level

26%

Al Jandal scores more

22%

Al Kholood at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al Kholood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff