Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC — Pro League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 7+ matches
Al Kholood21%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC54%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 76% more chances
Season form · 7 home / 9 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Al Kholood ↓
Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Al Kholood at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.92 · 7 matches
Al-Hilal Saudi FC away — creates 2.45, concedes 0.92 · 9 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Al Kholood attack 1.00 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96
Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.45 + Al Kholood defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.69
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Al-NassrAl-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Ittihad FC
Al Taawon
Al-Ettifaq
NEOM
Al-Hazm
Al-Fayha
Al Khaleej Saihat
Al-Fateh
Al ShababAl Kholood
Al Riyadh
Damac
Al Okhdood
Al NajmaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Al Kholood host Al-Hilal Saudi FC on Saturday, 28 September 2024 at 18:00. The match is part of the Pro League 2018/2019 season.
Pro League: Al Kholood 2–4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Kholood 4-2 in Pro League on September 28, 2024.
Goals: K. Koulibaly (38'), Malcom (43'), Ali Al Bulayhi (45+3'), Renan Lodi (48'), Hammam Al Hammami (71'), W. Troost-Ekong (87' pen).
Al-Hilal Saudi FC controlled possession (65%) and registered 13 shots to 7.
The match was played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Buraidah.