Al Kholood 0–1 Al-Ahli Jeddah: Result & Stats

Al Kholood

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al-Ahli Jeddah

I. Toney 74'

1/17/2026

Pro League · Round 16Al-Hazem Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Al Kholood28%

×Draw29%

Al-Ahli Jeddah43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al KholoodExpected goals in this matchAl-Ahli Jeddah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.24

Al Kholood

0.93

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.24

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 33% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

1.00

creates per match

1.56

0.92

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Al Kholood

1.00

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.56

allows per match

Al Kholood

0.92

Al-Ahli Jeddah

0.85

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Al Kholood-0.43scores less

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.08on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Kholood ↓

Al-Ahli Jeddah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Al Kholood or draw

57%

Al Kholood or Al-Ahli Jeddah

71%

Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah

72%

Winning margin

Al Kholood wins by 2+

10%

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Al Kholood 1+ goals

61%

Al Kholood 2+ goals

24%

Al Kholood 3+ goals

7%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals

71%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals

35%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Al Kholood (draw refunded)

39%

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Kholood at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.92 · 7 matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.85 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Kholood attack 1.00 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.93

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.56 + Al Kholood defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Kholood scores more

28%

level

29%

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more

43%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

J. Buckley

Al Kholood · M

7.7

Match Events

31'

Valentin Atangana EdoaGoal cancelled

41'

M. Sawan← M. Maolida

45+2'

Hattan Bahebri

46'

Matheus Goncalves← Galeno

61'

Sultan Al ShehriGoal cancelled

69'

F. Al Buraikan← F. Kessie

69'

R. Hamidou← M. Sulaiman

72'

K. N'Doram← H. Bahebri

74'

I. Toney

85'

S. Abu Al Shamat← R. Mahrez

86'

Juan Cozzani

86'

Merih Demiral

87'

M. Camara← S. Al Shehri

87'

M. Khalifah← A. Al Dawsari

90+6'

Abdulrahman Al Sanbi

90+4'

Enzo Millot

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlAl-Ahli

Overview

45%Possession55%

14Total Shots14

0.80Expected Goals (xG)1.12

3Corners8

9Fouls18

Shots

14Total Shots14

2On Target5

8Off Target5

4Blocked4

10Inside Box10

4Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

331Total Passes405

258Accurate Passes327

78%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls18

2Yellow Cards3

4Offsides3