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Al Kholood vs Al-Adalah — Division 1 2018

Al Kholood
Al Kholood
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Adalah
Al-Adalah
5/28/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 34Ar-Rass Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Al Kholood42%
×Draw28%
Al-Adalah30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Kholood
1.27
Al-Adalah
1.02

Al Kholood creates 25% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 92 away

creates per match

Al Kholood
1.26
Al-Adalah
1.27

allows per match

Al Kholood
0.77
Al-Adalah
1.28

finishing

Al Kholood+0.00on par
Al-Adalah+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Kholood ↓

Al-Adalah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Kholood or draw
70%
Al Kholood or Al-Adalah
72%
Draw or Al-Adalah
58%

Winning margin

Al Kholood wins by 2+
19%
Al-Adalah wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Kholood 1+ goals
72%
Al Kholood 2+ goals
36%
Al Kholood 3+ goals
14%
Al-Adalah 1+ goals
64%
Al-Adalah 2+ goals
27%
Al-Adalah 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Kholood (draw refunded)
59%
Al-Adalah (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Kholood at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.77 · 53 matches

Al-Adalah away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.28 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Kholood attack 1.26 + Al-Adalah defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Al-Adalah attack 1.27 + Al Kholood defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Kholood scores more
42%
level
28%
Al-Adalah scores more
30%

Al Kholood at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Kholood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Kholood 1–1 Al-Adalah

Al Kholood and Al-Adalah drew 1-1 in Division 1 on May 28, 2024.

The match was played at Ar-Rass Stadium in Rass.