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Al-Khmes vs Rafeeq — Premier League 2019

Al-Khmes
Al-Khmes
FT
1 – 0
Rafeeq
Rafeeq
6/10/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al-Khmes48%
×Draw29%
Rafeeq23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Khmes
1.30
Rafeeq
0.80

Al-Khmes creates 63% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 11 away

creates per match

Al-Khmes
0.88
Rafeeq
0.55

allows per match

Al-Khmes
1.05
Rafeeq
1.73

finishing

Al-Khmes+0.00on par
Rafeeq+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Khmes ↓

Rafeeq →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al-Khmes or draw
77%
Al-Khmes or Rafeeq
71%
Draw or Rafeeq
52%

Winning margin

Al-Khmes wins by 2+
23%
Rafeeq wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al-Khmes 1+ goals
73%
Al-Khmes 2+ goals
37%
Al-Khmes 3+ goals
14%
Rafeeq 1+ goals
55%
Rafeeq 2+ goals
19%
Rafeeq 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al-Khmes (draw refunded)
68%
Rafeeq (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Khmes at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.05 · 57 matches

Rafeeq away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Khmes attack 0.88 + Rafeeq defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.30

Rafeeq attack 0.55 + Al-Khmes defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al-Khmes scores more
48%
level
29%
Rafeeq scores more
23%

Al-Khmes at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al-Khmes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Khmes vs Rafeeq

Al-Khmes beat Rafeeq 1-0 in Premier League on June 10, 2021.