Al-Khmes 4–2 Aschat: Result & Stats

Al-Khmes

FT

4 – 2

Aschat

3/2/2021

Premier League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Al-Khmes46%

×Draw28%

Aschat26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-KhmesExpected goals in this matchAschat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.90

Al-Khmes

1.29

Aschat

0.90

Al-Khmes creates 43% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 20 away

0.88

creates per match

0.75

1.05

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Al-Khmes

0.88

Aschat

0.75

allows per match

Al-Khmes

1.05

Aschat

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Khmes+0.00on par

Aschat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Khmes ↓

Aschat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Al-Khmes or draw

74%

Al-Khmes or Aschat

72%

Draw or Aschat

54%

Winning margin

Al-Khmes wins by 2+

21%

Aschat wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Al-Khmes 1+ goals

72%

Al-Khmes 2+ goals

37%

Al-Khmes 3+ goals

14%

Aschat 1+ goals

59%

Aschat 2+ goals

23%

Aschat 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Al-Khmes (draw refunded)

64%

Aschat (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Khmes at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.05 · 57 matches

Aschat away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Khmes attack 0.88 + Aschat defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.29

Aschat attack 0.75 + Al-Khmes defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al-Khmes scores more

46%

level

28%

Aschat scores more

26%

Al-Khmes at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al-Khmes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff