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Al Khartoum vs Hilal Obayed — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Khartoum
Al Khartoum
FT
1 – 1
Hilal Obayed
Hilal Obayed
3/25/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 14Al-Ubayyid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Al Khartoum46%
×Draw27%
Hilal Obayed27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Khartoum
1.39
Hilal Obayed
0.99

Al Khartoum creates 40% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 56 away

creates per match

Al Khartoum
1.46
Hilal Obayed
0.86

allows per match

Al Khartoum
1.13
Hilal Obayed
1.32

finishing

Al Khartoum+0.00on par
Hilal Obayed+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Khartoum ↓

Hilal Obayed →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Khartoum or draw
73%
Al Khartoum or Hilal Obayed
73%
Draw or Hilal Obayed
54%

Winning margin

Al Khartoum wins by 2+
22%
Hilal Obayed wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Khartoum 1+ goals
75%
Al Khartoum 2+ goals
40%
Al Khartoum 3+ goals
16%
Hilal Obayed 1+ goals
63%
Hilal Obayed 2+ goals
26%
Hilal Obayed 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Khartoum (draw refunded)
63%
Hilal Obayed (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Khartoum at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 56 matches

Hilal Obayed away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Khartoum attack 1.46 + Hilal Obayed defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.39

Hilal Obayed attack 0.86 + Al Khartoum defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Khartoum scores more
46%
level
27%
Hilal Obayed scores more
27%

Al Khartoum at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Khartoum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Khartoum 1–1 Hilal Obayed

Al Khartoum and Hilal Obayed drew 1-1 in Sudani Premier League on March 25, 2022.

The match was played at Al-Ubayyid Stadium in Al-Ubayyid.