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Al Khartoum vs Alamal Atbara — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Khartoum
Al Khartoum
FT
1 – 1
Alamal Atbara
Alamal Atbara
3/6/2020Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 24Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Al Khartoum45%
×Draw27%
Alamal Atbara28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Khartoum
1.35
Alamal Atbara
1.01

Al Khartoum creates 34% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 86 away

creates per match

Al Khartoum
1.46
Alamal Atbara
0.90

allows per match

Al Khartoum
1.13
Alamal Atbara
1.24

finishing

Al Khartoum+0.00on par
Alamal Atbara+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Khartoum ↓

Alamal Atbara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Khartoum or draw
72%
Al Khartoum or Alamal Atbara
73%
Draw or Alamal Atbara
55%

Winning margin

Al Khartoum wins by 2+
21%
Alamal Atbara wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Khartoum 1+ goals
74%
Al Khartoum 2+ goals
39%
Al Khartoum 3+ goals
15%
Alamal Atbara 1+ goals
64%
Alamal Atbara 2+ goals
27%
Alamal Atbara 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Khartoum (draw refunded)
61%
Alamal Atbara (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Khartoum at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 56 matches

Alamal Atbara away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.24 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Khartoum attack 1.46 + Alamal Atbara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Alamal Atbara attack 0.90 + Al Khartoum defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al Khartoum scores more
45%
level
27%
Alamal Atbara scores more
28%

Al Khartoum at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al Khartoum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Khartoum vs Alamal Atbara

Al Khartoum and Alamal Atbara drew 1-1 in Sudani Premier League on March 6, 2020.

The match was played at Khartoum Stadium in Khartoum.