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Al Khartoum vs Al Hilal Port Sudan — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Khartoum
Al Khartoum
FT
1 – 1
Al Hilal Port Sudan
Al Hilal Port Sudan
6/14/2021Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 19Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Al Khartoum38%
×Draw28%
Al Hilal Port Sudan35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Khartoum
1.24
Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 57 away

creates per match

Al Khartoum
1.46
Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.21

allows per match

Al Khartoum
1.13
Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.02

finishing

Al Khartoum+0.00on par
Al Hilal Port Sudan+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Khartoum ↓

Al Hilal Port Sudan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Khartoum or draw
65%
Al Khartoum or Al Hilal Port Sudan
72%
Draw or Al Hilal Port Sudan
62%

Winning margin

Al Khartoum wins by 2+
16%
Al Hilal Port Sudan wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al Khartoum 1+ goals
71%
Al Khartoum 2+ goals
35%
Al Khartoum 3+ goals
13%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 1+ goals
69%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 2+ goals
33%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Khartoum (draw refunded)
52%
Al Hilal Port Sudan (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Khartoum at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 56 matches

Al Hilal Port Sudan away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.02 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Khartoum attack 1.46 + Al Hilal Port Sudan defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.24

Al Hilal Port Sudan attack 1.21 + Al Khartoum defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Khartoum scores more
38%
level
28%
Al Hilal Port Sudan scores more
35%

Al Khartoum at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Khartoum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Khartoum vs Al Hilal Port Sudan

Al Khartoum and Al Hilal Port Sudan drew 1-1 in Sudani Premier League on June 14, 2021.

The match was played at Khartoum Stadium in Khartoum.