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Al Khartoum vs Al Hilal Kadougli — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Khartoum
Al Khartoum
FT
2 – 1
Al Hilal Kadougli
Al Hilal Kadougli
2/23/2021Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 12Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Al Khartoum50%
×Draw26%
Al Hilal Kadougli24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Khartoum
1.51
Al Hilal Kadougli
0.96

Al Khartoum creates 57% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 43 away

creates per match

Al Khartoum
1.46
Al Hilal Kadougli
0.79

allows per match

Al Khartoum
1.13
Al Hilal Kadougli
1.56

finishing

Al Khartoum+0.00on par
Al Hilal Kadougli+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Khartoum ↓

Al Hilal Kadougli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Khartoum or draw
76%
Al Khartoum or Al Hilal Kadougli
74%
Draw or Al Hilal Kadougli
50%

Winning margin

Al Khartoum wins by 2+
25%
Al Hilal Kadougli wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Khartoum 1+ goals
78%
Al Khartoum 2+ goals
44%
Al Khartoum 3+ goals
19%
Al Hilal Kadougli 1+ goals
62%
Al Hilal Kadougli 2+ goals
25%
Al Hilal Kadougli 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Khartoum (draw refunded)
68%
Al Hilal Kadougli (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Khartoum at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 56 matches

Al Hilal Kadougli away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.56 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Khartoum attack 1.46 + Al Hilal Kadougli defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.51

Al Hilal Kadougli attack 0.79 + Al Khartoum defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al Khartoum scores more
50%
level
26%
Al Hilal Kadougli scores more
24%

Al Khartoum at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al Khartoum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Khartoum vs Al Hilal Kadougli

Al Khartoum beat Al Hilal Kadougli 2-1 in Sudani Premier League on February 23, 2021.

The match was played at Khartoum Stadium in Khartoum.