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Al Khartoum vs Al Fallah — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Khartoum
Al Khartoum
FT
1 – 0
Al Fallah
Al Fallah
12/11/2019Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 15Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Al Khartoum50%
×Draw27%
Al Fallah22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Khartoum
1.41
Al Fallah
0.84

Al Khartoum creates 68% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 40 away

creates per match

Al Khartoum
1.46
Al Fallah
0.55

allows per match

Al Khartoum
1.13
Al Fallah
1.35

finishing

Al Khartoum+0.00on par
Al Fallah+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Khartoum ↓

Al Fallah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Khartoum or draw
78%
Al Khartoum or Al Fallah
73%
Draw or Al Fallah
50%

Winning margin

Al Khartoum wins by 2+
25%
Al Fallah wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al Khartoum 1+ goals
76%
Al Khartoum 2+ goals
41%
Al Khartoum 3+ goals
17%
Al Fallah 1+ goals
57%
Al Fallah 2+ goals
21%
Al Fallah 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Khartoum (draw refunded)
69%
Al Fallah (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Khartoum at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 56 matches

Al Fallah away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.35 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Khartoum attack 1.46 + Al Fallah defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.41

Al Fallah attack 0.55 + Al Khartoum defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al Khartoum scores more
50%
level
27%
Al Fallah scores more
22%

Al Khartoum at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al Khartoum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Khartoum 1–0 Al Fallah

Al Khartoum beat Al Fallah 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on December 11, 2019.

The match was played at Khartoum Stadium in Khartoum.