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Al Khartoum vs Al-Ahly Merowe — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Khartoum
Al Khartoum
FT
0 – 1
Al-Ahly Merowe
Al-Ahly Merowe
2/14/2020Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 20Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Al Khartoum49%
×Draw27%
Al-Ahly Merowe24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Khartoum
1.41
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.91

Al Khartoum creates 55% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 74 away

creates per match

Al Khartoum
1.46
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.70

allows per match

Al Khartoum
1.13
Al-Ahly Merowe
1.35

finishing

Al Khartoum+0.00on par
Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Khartoum ↓

Al-Ahly Merowe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Khartoum or draw
76%
Al Khartoum or Al-Ahly Merowe
73%
Draw or Al-Ahly Merowe
51%

Winning margin

Al Khartoum wins by 2+
24%
Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Khartoum 1+ goals
76%
Al Khartoum 2+ goals
41%
Al Khartoum 3+ goals
17%
Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals
60%
Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals
23%
Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Khartoum (draw refunded)
67%
Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Khartoum at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 56 matches

Al-Ahly Merowe away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.35 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Khartoum attack 1.46 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.41

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.70 + Al Khartoum defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Al Khartoum scores more
49%
level
27%
Al-Ahly Merowe scores more
24%

Al Khartoum at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al Khartoum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Khartoum vs Al-Ahly Merowe

Al-Ahly Merowe beat Al Khartoum 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on February 14, 2020.

The match was played at Khartoum Stadium in Khartoum.