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Al Kharaitiyat vs Al Shamal — League #306 2026

Al Kharaitiyat
Al Kharaitiyat
FT
3 – 1
Al Shamal
Al Shamal
10/2/2019League #306League #306 · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al Kharaitiyat65%
×Draw22%
Al Shamal13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Kharaitiyat
1.83
Al Shamal
0.67

Al Kharaitiyat creates 173% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Al Kharaitiyat
1.67
Al Shamal
1.00

allows per match

Al Kharaitiyat
0.33
Al Shamal
2.00

finishing

Al Kharaitiyat+0.00on par
Al Shamal+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Kharaitiyat ↓

Al Shamal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Kharaitiyat or draw
87%
Al Kharaitiyat or Al Shamal
78%
Draw or Al Shamal
35%

Winning margin

Al Kharaitiyat wins by 2+
39%
Al Shamal wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Al Kharaitiyat 1+ goals
84%
Al Kharaitiyat 2+ goals
54%
Al Kharaitiyat 3+ goals
28%
Al Shamal 1+ goals
49%
Al Shamal 2+ goals
15%
Al Shamal 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al Kharaitiyat (draw refunded)
83%
Al Shamal (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Kharaitiyat at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Al Shamal away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Kharaitiyat attack 1.67 + Al Shamal defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Al Shamal attack 1.00 + Al Kharaitiyat defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Al Kharaitiyat scores more
65%
level
22%
Al Shamal scores more
13%

Al Kharaitiyat at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Al Kharaitiyat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Kharaitiyat vs Al Shamal

Al Kharaitiyat beat Al Shamal 3-1 in League #306 on October 2, 2019.