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Al Khaleej Saihat vs Hetten FC — Division 1 2018

Al Khaleej Saihat
Al Khaleej Saihat
FT
1 – 3
Hetten FC
Hetten FC
8/8/2020Division 1Division 1 · Round 29Al Safwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Khaleej Saihat55%
×Draw23%
Hetten FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Khaleej Saihat
1.77
Hetten FC
1.00

Al Khaleej Saihat creates 77% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 19 away

creates per match

Al Khaleej Saihat
1.22
Hetten FC
0.89

allows per match

Al Khaleej Saihat
1.10
Hetten FC
2.32

finishing

Al Khaleej Saihat+0.00on par
Hetten FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Khaleej Saihat ↓

Hetten FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Al Khaleej Saihat or draw
79%
Al Khaleej Saihat or Hetten FC
77%
Draw or Hetten FC
45%

Winning margin

Al Khaleej Saihat wins by 2+
31%
Hetten FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Khaleej Saihat 1+ goals
83%
Al Khaleej Saihat 2+ goals
53%
Al Khaleej Saihat 3+ goals
26%
Hetten FC 1+ goals
63%
Hetten FC 2+ goals
26%
Hetten FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Khaleej Saihat (draw refunded)
72%
Hetten FC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Khaleej Saihat at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 59 matches

Hetten FC away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.22 + Hetten FC defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.77

Hetten FC attack 0.89 + Al Khaleej Saihat defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Al Khaleej Saihat scores more
55%
level
23%
Hetten FC scores more
21%

Al Khaleej Saihat at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al Khaleej Saihat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Khaleej Saihat 1–3 Hetten FC

Hetten FC beat Al Khaleej Saihat 3-1 in Division 1 on August 8, 2020.

The match was played at Al Safwa Stadium in Safwa.