Al Khaleej Saihat 0–1 Al-Thuqbah: Result & Stats

Al Khaleej Saihat

FT

0 – 1

Al-Thuqbah

2/11/2020

Division 1 · Round 24Al Khaleej Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Al Khaleej Saihat41%

×Draw27%

Al-Thuqbah31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Khaleej SaihatExpected goals in this matchAl-Thuqbah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.11

Al Khaleej Saihat

1.32

Al-Thuqbah

1.11

Al Khaleej Saihat creates 19% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 38 away

1.22

creates per match

1.13

1.10

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Al Khaleej Saihat

1.22

Al-Thuqbah

1.13

allows per match

Al Khaleej Saihat

1.10

Al-Thuqbah

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Khaleej Saihat+0.00on par

Al-Thuqbah+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Khaleej Saihat ↓

Al-Thuqbah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Al Khaleej Saihat or draw

69%

Al Khaleej Saihat or Al-Thuqbah

73%

Draw or Al-Thuqbah

59%

Winning margin

Al Khaleej Saihat wins by 2+

19%

Al-Thuqbah wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Al Khaleej Saihat 1+ goals

73%

Al Khaleej Saihat 2+ goals

38%

Al Khaleej Saihat 3+ goals

15%

Al-Thuqbah 1+ goals

67%

Al-Thuqbah 2+ goals

30%

Al-Thuqbah 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Al Khaleej Saihat (draw refunded)

57%

Al-Thuqbah (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Khaleej Saihat at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 59 matches

Al-Thuqbah away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.22 + Al-Thuqbah defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.32

Al-Thuqbah attack 1.13 + Al Khaleej Saihat defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Khaleej Saihat scores more

41%

level

27%

Al-Thuqbah scores more

31%

Al Khaleej Saihat at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Khaleej Saihat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff