Al Khaleej Saihat 1–2 Al Taqdom: Result & Stats

Al Khaleej Saihat

FT

1 – 2

Al Taqdom

12/11/2019

Division 1 · Round 16Al Khaleej Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Khaleej Saihat48%

×Draw26%

Al Taqdom26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Khaleej SaihatExpected goals in this matchAl Taqdom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.05

Al Khaleej Saihat

1.53

Al Taqdom

1.05

Al Khaleej Saihat creates 46% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 19 away

1.22

creates per match

1.00

1.10

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Al Khaleej Saihat

1.22

Al Taqdom

1.00

allows per match

Al Khaleej Saihat

1.10

Al Taqdom

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Khaleej Saihat+0.00on par

Al Taqdom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Khaleej Saihat ↓

Al Taqdom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Al Khaleej Saihat or draw

74%

Al Khaleej Saihat or Al Taqdom

74%

Draw or Al Taqdom

52%

Winning margin

Al Khaleej Saihat wins by 2+

25%

Al Taqdom wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al Khaleej Saihat 1+ goals

78%

Al Khaleej Saihat 2+ goals

45%

Al Khaleej Saihat 3+ goals

20%

Al Taqdom 1+ goals

65%

Al Taqdom 2+ goals

28%

Al Taqdom 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Al Khaleej Saihat (draw refunded)

65%

Al Taqdom (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Khaleej Saihat at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 59 matches

Al Taqdom away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.22 + Al Taqdom defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.53

Al Taqdom attack 1.00 + Al Khaleej Saihat defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al Khaleej Saihat scores more

48%

level

26%

Al Taqdom scores more

26%

Al Khaleej Saihat at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Khaleej Saihat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff