Al Khaleej Saihat 1–2 Al Riyadh: Result & Stats

Al Khaleej Saihat

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Al Riyadh

5/10/2025

Pro League · Round 31Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Al Khaleej Saihat45%

×Draw24%

Al Riyadh31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Khaleej SaihatExpected goals in this matchAl Riyadh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.35

Al Khaleej Saihat

1.69

Al Riyadh

1.35

Al Khaleej Saihat creates 25% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 51 away

1.32

creates per match

1.12

1.59

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Al Khaleej Saihat

1.32

Al Riyadh

1.12

allows per match

Al Khaleej Saihat

1.59

Al Riyadh

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Khaleej Saihat+0.00on par

Al Riyadh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Khaleej Saihat ↓

Al Riyadh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Al Khaleej Saihat or draw

69%

Al Khaleej Saihat or Al Riyadh

76%

Draw or Al Riyadh

55%

Winning margin

Al Khaleej Saihat wins by 2+

24%

Al Riyadh wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Al Khaleej Saihat 1+ goals

82%

Al Khaleej Saihat 2+ goals

50%

Al Khaleej Saihat 3+ goals

24%

Al Riyadh 1+ goals

74%

Al Riyadh 2+ goals

39%

Al Riyadh 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Al Khaleej Saihat (draw refunded)

60%

Al Riyadh (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Khaleej Saihat at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

Al Riyadh away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.32 + Al Riyadh defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.69

Al Riyadh attack 1.12 + Al Khaleej Saihat defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al Khaleej Saihat scores more

45%

level

24%

Al Riyadh scores more

31%

Al Khaleej Saihat at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al Khaleej Saihat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff