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Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC — Pro League 2018

Al Khaleej Saihat
Al Khaleej Saihat
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Ittihad FC
Al-Ittihad FC
5/16/2024Pro LeaguePro League · Round 32Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Al Khaleej Saihat30%
×Draw24%
Al-Ittihad FC46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Khaleej Saihat
1.29
Al-Ittihad FC
1.66

Al-Ittihad FC creates 29% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 126 away

creates per match

Al Khaleej Saihat
1.32
Al-Ittihad FC
1.72

allows per match

Al Khaleej Saihat
1.59
Al-Ittihad FC
1.25

finishing

Al Khaleej Saihat+0.00on par
Al-Ittihad FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Khaleej Saihat ↓

Al-Ittihad FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Al Khaleej Saihat or draw
54%
Al Khaleej Saihat or Al-Ittihad FC
76%
Draw or Al-Ittihad FC
70%

Winning margin

Al Khaleej Saihat wins by 2+
13%
Al-Ittihad FC wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Al Khaleej Saihat 1+ goals
72%
Al Khaleej Saihat 2+ goals
37%
Al Khaleej Saihat 3+ goals
14%
Al-Ittihad FC 1+ goals
81%
Al-Ittihad FC 2+ goals
49%
Al-Ittihad FC 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Al Khaleej Saihat (draw refunded)
39%
Al-Ittihad FC (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Khaleej Saihat at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

Al-Ittihad FC away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.25 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.32 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.72 + Al Khaleej Saihat defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Khaleej Saihat scores more
30%
level
24%
Al-Ittihad FC scores more
46%

Al-Ittihad FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al-Ittihad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC

Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC drew 1-1 in Pro League on May 16, 2024.

The match was played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Dammam.