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Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha — Pro League 2018

Al Khaleej Saihat
Al Khaleej Saihat
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Fayha
Al-Fayha
9/20/2024Pro LeaguePro League · Round 4Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Al Khaleej Saihat42%
×Draw25%
Al-Fayha33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Khaleej Saihat
1.48
Al-Fayha
1.27

Al Khaleej Saihat creates 17% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 111 away

creates per match

Al Khaleej Saihat
1.32
Al-Fayha
0.96

allows per match

Al Khaleej Saihat
1.59
Al-Fayha
1.63

finishing

Al Khaleej Saihat+0.00on par
Al-Fayha+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Khaleej Saihat ↓

Al-Fayha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al Khaleej Saihat or draw
67%
Al Khaleej Saihat or Al-Fayha
75%
Draw or Al-Fayha
58%

Winning margin

Al Khaleej Saihat wins by 2+
20%
Al-Fayha wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al Khaleej Saihat 1+ goals
77%
Al Khaleej Saihat 2+ goals
43%
Al Khaleej Saihat 3+ goals
19%
Al-Fayha 1+ goals
72%
Al-Fayha 2+ goals
36%
Al-Fayha 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al Khaleej Saihat (draw refunded)
56%
Al-Fayha (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Khaleej Saihat at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

Al-Fayha away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.63 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.32 + Al-Fayha defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Al-Fayha attack 0.96 + Al Khaleej Saihat defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Khaleej Saihat scores more
42%
level
25%
Al-Fayha scores more
33%

Al Khaleej Saihat at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Khaleej Saihat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League: Al Khaleej Saihat 0–0 Al-Fayha

Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha drew 0-0 in Pro League on September 20, 2024.

The match was played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Dammam.