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Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq — Pro League 2018

Al Khaleej Saihat
Al Khaleej Saihat
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Al-Ettifaq
Al-Ettifaq
12/7/2024Pro LeaguePro League · Round 13Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Al Khaleej Saihat36%
×Draw25%
Al-Ettifaq39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Khaleej Saihat
1.39
Al-Ettifaq
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 126 away

creates per match

Al Khaleej Saihat
1.32
Al-Ettifaq
1.32

allows per match

Al Khaleej Saihat
1.59
Al-Ettifaq
1.45

finishing

Al Khaleej Saihat+0.00on par
Al-Ettifaq+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Khaleej Saihat ↓

Al-Ettifaq →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al Khaleej Saihat or draw
61%
Al Khaleej Saihat or Al-Ettifaq
75%
Draw or Al-Ettifaq
64%

Winning margin

Al Khaleej Saihat wins by 2+
16%
Al-Ettifaq wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Al Khaleej Saihat 1+ goals
75%
Al Khaleej Saihat 2+ goals
40%
Al Khaleej Saihat 3+ goals
16%
Al-Ettifaq 1+ goals
77%
Al-Ettifaq 2+ goals
43%
Al-Ettifaq 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Al Khaleej Saihat (draw refunded)
48%
Al-Ettifaq (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Khaleej Saihat at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

Al-Ettifaq away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.32 + Al-Ettifaq defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.39

Al-Ettifaq attack 1.32 + Al Khaleej Saihat defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Khaleej Saihat scores more
36%
level
25%
Al-Ettifaq scores more
39%

Al-Ettifaq at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al-Ettifaq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League: Al Khaleej Saihat 1–2 Al-Ettifaq

Al-Ettifaq beat Al Khaleej Saihat 2-1 in Pro League on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Dammam.