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Al-Karma vs Naft — Iraqi League 2025

Al-Karma
Al-Karma
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Naft
Naft
A. Khaled 70'
R. Donfack 7'
9/26/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 2Al Ramadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Al-Karma49%
×Draw29%
Naft22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Karma
1.28
Naft
0.74

Al-Karma creates 73% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 40 away

creates per match

Al-Karma
1.41
Naft
0.78

allows per match

Al-Karma
0.70
Naft
1.15

finishing

Al-Karma+0.00on par
Naft+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Karma ↓

Naft →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al-Karma or draw
78%
Al-Karma or Naft
71%
Draw or Naft
51%

Winning margin

Al-Karma wins by 2+
23%
Naft wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al-Karma 1+ goals
72%
Al-Karma 2+ goals
37%
Al-Karma 3+ goals
14%
Naft 1+ goals
52%
Naft 2+ goals
17%
Naft 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al-Karma (draw refunded)
70%
Naft (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Karma at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.70 · 27 matches

Naft away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.15 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Karma attack 1.41 + Naft defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.28

Naft attack 0.78 + Al-Karma defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Al-Karma scores more
49%
level
29%
Naft scores more
22%

Al-Karma at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al-Karma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
R. Donfack
70'
A. Khaled
90+6'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Karma vs Naft

Naft beat Al-Karma 2-0 in Iraqi League on September 26, 2024.

Goals: R. Donfack (7'), A. Khaled (70').

The match was played at Al Ramadi Stadium in Ramadi.