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Al-Karma vs Al Shorta — Iraqi League 2025

Al-Karma
Al-Karma
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al Shorta
Al Shorta
A. Hussein 39' (pen)
L. Atiba 10' (pen)
4/17/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Al-Karma34%
×Draw27%
Al Shorta39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Karma
1.18
Al Shorta
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 36 away

creates per match

Al-Karma
1.60
Al Shorta
1.89

allows per match

Al-Karma
0.70
Al Shorta
0.75

finishing

Al-Karma+0.00on par
Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Karma ↓

Al Shorta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al-Karma or draw
61%
Al-Karma or Al Shorta
73%
Draw or Al Shorta
66%

Winning margin

Al-Karma wins by 2+
14%
Al Shorta wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Al-Karma 1+ goals
69%
Al-Karma 2+ goals
33%
Al-Karma 3+ goals
12%
Al Shorta 1+ goals
72%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
37%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al-Karma (draw refunded)
46%
Al Shorta (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Karma at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.70 · 20 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 1.89, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Karma attack 1.60 + Al Shorta defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.18

Al Shorta attack 1.89 + Al-Karma defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al-Karma scores more
34%
level
27%
Al Shorta scores more
39%

Al Shorta at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
L. AtibaPenalty
39'
A. HusseinPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al-Karma 1–1 Al Shorta

Al-Karma and Al Shorta drew 1-1 in Iraqi League on April 17, 2026.

Goals: L. Atiba (10' pen), A. Hussein (39' pen).