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Al-Karma vs Al Kahrabaa — Iraqi League 2021

Al-Karma
Al-Karma
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa
Alaa Al Dali 90+8'
Nihad Mohammed 80'
2/3/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 18Zakho International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Al-Karma45%
×Draw29%
Al Kahrabaa25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Karma
1.23
Al Kahrabaa
0.84

Al-Karma creates 46% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 106 away

creates per match

Al-Karma
1.21
Al Kahrabaa
1.05

allows per match

Al-Karma
0.63
Al Kahrabaa
1.26

finishing

Al-Karma+0.00on par
Al Kahrabaa+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Karma ↓

Al Kahrabaa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al-Karma or draw
75%
Al-Karma or Al Kahrabaa
71%
Draw or Al Kahrabaa
55%

Winning margin

Al-Karma wins by 2+
20%
Al Kahrabaa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al-Karma 1+ goals
71%
Al-Karma 2+ goals
35%
Al-Karma 3+ goals
13%
Al Kahrabaa 1+ goals
57%
Al Kahrabaa 2+ goals
21%
Al Kahrabaa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al-Karma (draw refunded)
64%
Al Kahrabaa (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Karma at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.63 · 38 matches

Al Kahrabaa away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.26 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Karma attack 1.21 + Al Kahrabaa defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Al Kahrabaa attack 1.05 + Al-Karma defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al-Karma scores more
45%
level
29%
Al Kahrabaa scores more
25%

Al-Karma at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al-Karma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

80'
Nihad Mohammed
90+8'
Alaa Al Dali

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al-Karma 1–1 Al Kahrabaa

Al-Karma and Al Kahrabaa drew 1-1 in Iraqi League on February 3, 2025.

Goals: Nihad Mohammed (80'), Alaa Al Dali (90+8').

The match was played at Zakho International Stadium in Zakho.