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Al Karkh vs Zakho — Iraqi League 2020

Al Karkh
Al Karkh
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zakho
Zakho
10/10/2022Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 1Al-Karkh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Al Karkh33%
×Draw30%
Zakho37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Karkh
1.00
Zakho
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 109 away

creates per match

Al Karkh
1.05
Zakho
1.02

allows per match

Al Karkh
1.14
Zakho
0.95

finishing

Al Karkh+0.00on par
Zakho+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Karkh ↓

Zakho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Karkh or draw
63%
Al Karkh or Zakho
70%
Draw or Zakho
67%

Winning margin

Al Karkh wins by 2+
12%
Zakho wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al Karkh 1+ goals
63%
Al Karkh 2+ goals
26%
Al Karkh 3+ goals
8%
Zakho 1+ goals
66%
Zakho 2+ goals
29%
Zakho 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al Karkh (draw refunded)
47%
Zakho (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Karkh at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

Zakho away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.95 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Karkh attack 1.05 + Zakho defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.00

Zakho attack 1.02 + Al Karkh defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Karkh scores more
33%
level
30%
Zakho scores more
37%

Zakho at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Zakho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Karkh 1 – 0 Zakho

Al Karkh beat Zakho 1-0 in Iraqi League on October 10, 2022.

The match was played at Al-Karkh Stadium in Bagdad.