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Al Karkh vs Samarra — Iraqi League 2020

Al Karkh
Al Karkh
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Samarra
Samarra
11/4/2021Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 8Al-Karkh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Al Karkh49%
×Draw30%
Samarra21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Karkh
1.25
Samarra
0.72

Al Karkh creates 74% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 13 away

creates per match

Al Karkh
1.05
Samarra
0.31

allows per match

Al Karkh
1.14
Samarra
1.46

finishing

Al Karkh+0.00on par
Samarra+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Karkh ↓

Samarra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al Karkh or draw
79%
Al Karkh or Samarra
70%
Draw or Samarra
51%

Winning margin

Al Karkh wins by 2+
22%
Samarra wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al Karkh 1+ goals
71%
Al Karkh 2+ goals
36%
Al Karkh 3+ goals
13%
Samarra 1+ goals
51%
Samarra 2+ goals
16%
Samarra 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al Karkh (draw refunded)
70%
Samarra (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Karkh at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

Samarra away — creates 0.31, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Karkh attack 1.05 + Samarra defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

Samarra attack 0.31 + Al Karkh defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Al Karkh scores more
49%
level
30%
Samarra scores more
21%

Al Karkh at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al Karkh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Karkh vs Samarra

Al Karkh and Samarra drew 1-1 in Iraqi League on November 4, 2021.

The match was played at Al-Karkh Stadium in Bagdad.