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Al Karkh vs Newroz — Iraqi League 2020

Al Karkh
Al Karkh
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Newroz
Newroz
4/18/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 28Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Al Karkh32%
×Draw27%
Newroz41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Karkh
1.15
Newroz
1.35

Newroz creates 17% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 16 away

creates per match

Al Karkh
1.05
Newroz
1.56

allows per match

Al Karkh
1.14
Newroz
1.25

finishing

Al Karkh+0.00on par
Newroz+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Karkh ↓

Newroz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Karkh or draw
59%
Al Karkh or Newroz
73%
Draw or Newroz
68%

Winning margin

Al Karkh wins by 2+
13%
Newroz wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Al Karkh 1+ goals
68%
Al Karkh 2+ goals
32%
Al Karkh 3+ goals
11%
Newroz 1+ goals
74%
Newroz 2+ goals
39%
Newroz 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al Karkh (draw refunded)
44%
Newroz (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Karkh at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

Newroz away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Karkh attack 1.05 + Newroz defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Newroz attack 1.56 + Al Karkh defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Karkh scores more
32%
level
27%
Newroz scores more
41%

Newroz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Newroz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Karkh vs Newroz

Al Karkh and Newroz drew 2-2 in Iraqi League on April 18, 2025.

The match was played at Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium in Baghdād.