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Al Karkh vs Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya — Iraqi League 2020

Al Karkh
Al Karkh
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
2/4/2021Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 17Al-Karkh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Al Karkh45%
×Draw28%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Karkh
1.32
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
0.95

Al Karkh creates 39% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 22 away

creates per match

Al Karkh
1.05
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
0.77

allows per match

Al Karkh
1.14
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
1.59

finishing

Al Karkh+0.00on par
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Karkh ↓

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Karkh or draw
73%
Al Karkh or Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
72%
Draw or Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
55%

Winning margin

Al Karkh wins by 2+
21%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Karkh 1+ goals
73%
Al Karkh 2+ goals
38%
Al Karkh 3+ goals
15%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 1+ goals
61%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 2+ goals
25%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Karkh (draw refunded)
63%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Karkh at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Karkh attack 1.05 + Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.32

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya attack 0.77 + Al Karkh defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al Karkh scores more
45%
level
28%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya scores more
27%

Al Karkh at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al Karkh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Karkh vs Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya

Al Karkh beat Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 1-0 in Iraqi League on February 4, 2021.

The match was played at Al-Karkh Stadium in Bagdad.