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Al Karkh vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya — Iraqi League 2025

Al Karkh
Al Karkh
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Mustafa Waleed 79'
Alaa Abbas 75' (pen)
10/30/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 5Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Al Karkh34%
×Draw28%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Karkh
1.10
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 41 away

creates per match

Al Karkh
1.19
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.12

allows per match

Al Karkh
1.26
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.02

finishing

Al Karkh+0.00on par
Al Quwa Al Jawiya+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Karkh ↓

Al Quwa Al Jawiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Karkh or draw
62%
Al Karkh or Al Quwa Al Jawiya
72%
Draw or Al Quwa Al Jawiya
66%

Winning margin

Al Karkh wins by 2+
13%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al Karkh 1+ goals
67%
Al Karkh 2+ goals
30%
Al Karkh 3+ goals
10%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1+ goals
70%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2+ goals
33%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al Karkh (draw refunded)
47%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Karkh at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 42 matches

Al Quwa Al Jawiya away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.02 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Karkh attack 1.19 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.10

Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 1.12 + Al Karkh defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Karkh scores more
34%
level
28%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya scores more
38%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Quwa Al Jawiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

75'
Alaa AbbasPenalty
79'
Mustafa Waleed
90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Karkh vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Al Karkh and Al Quwa Al Jawiya drew 1-1 in Iraqi League on October 30, 2024.

Goals: Alaa Abbas (75' pen), Mustafa Waleed (79').

The match was played at Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium in Bagdad.