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Al Karama vs Tishreen — Premier League 2019

Al Karama
Al Karama
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tishreen
Tishreen
11/29/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Al-Basel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Al Karama36%
×Draw31%
Tishreen33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Karama
1.01
Tishreen
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 80 away

creates per match

Al Karama
1.17
Tishreen
1.18

allows per match

Al Karama
0.76
Tishreen
0.86

finishing

Al Karama+0.00on par
Tishreen+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Karama ↓

Tishreen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al Karama or draw
67%
Al Karama or Tishreen
69%
Draw or Tishreen
64%

Winning margin

Al Karama wins by 2+
14%
Tishreen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Al Karama 1+ goals
64%
Al Karama 2+ goals
27%
Al Karama 3+ goals
8%
Tishreen 1+ goals
62%
Tishreen 2+ goals
25%
Tishreen 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Karama (draw refunded)
52%
Tishreen (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Karama at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.76 · 83 matches

Tishreen away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.86 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Karama attack 1.17 + Tishreen defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.01

Tishreen attack 1.18 + Al Karama defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Karama scores more
36%
level
31%
Tishreen scores more
33%

Al Karama at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al Karama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Karama 2–0 Tishreen

Al Karama beat Tishreen 2-0 in Premier League on November 29, 2024.

The match was played at Al-Basel Stadium in Homs‎.