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Al Karama vs Jaish — Premier League 2019

Al Karama
Al Karama
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jaish
Jaish
11/25/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Khaled bin Walid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Al Karama40%
×Draw30%
Jaish30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Karama
1.11
Jaish
0.92

Al Karama creates 21% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 69 away

creates per match

Al Karama
1.17
Jaish
1.07

allows per match

Al Karama
0.76
Jaish
1.06

finishing

Al Karama+0.00on par
Jaish+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Karama ↓

Jaish →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Karama or draw
70%
Al Karama or Jaish
70%
Draw or Jaish
60%

Winning margin

Al Karama wins by 2+
16%
Jaish wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Karama 1+ goals
67%
Al Karama 2+ goals
30%
Al Karama 3+ goals
10%
Jaish 1+ goals
60%
Jaish 2+ goals
23%
Jaish 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Karama (draw refunded)
57%
Jaish (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Karama at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.76 · 83 matches

Jaish away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Karama attack 1.17 + Jaish defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.11

Jaish attack 1.07 + Al Karama defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Karama scores more
40%
level
30%
Jaish scores more
30%

Al Karama at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Karama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Karama 1–1 Jaish

Al Karama and Jaish drew 1-1 in Premier League on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Khaled bin Walid Stadium in Homs.