Al Karama 1–1 Foutoua: Result & Stats

Al Karama

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Foutoua

9/23/2023

Premier League · Round 1Khaled bin Walid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Al Karama43%

×Draw30%

Foutoua27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al KaramaExpected goals in this matchFoutoua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.87

Al Karama

1.17

Foutoua

0.87

Al Karama creates 34% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 81 away

1.17

creates per match

0.98

0.76

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Al Karama

1.17

Foutoua

0.98

allows per match

Al Karama

0.76

Foutoua

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Karama+0.00on par

Foutoua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Karama ↓

Foutoua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Al Karama or draw

73%

Al Karama or Foutoua

70%

Draw or Foutoua

57%

Winning margin

Al Karama wins by 2+

18%

Foutoua wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Al Karama 1+ goals

69%

Al Karama 2+ goals

33%

Al Karama 3+ goals

11%

Foutoua 1+ goals

58%

Foutoua 2+ goals

22%

Foutoua 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Al Karama (draw refunded)

61%

Foutoua (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Karama at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.76 · 83 matches

Foutoua away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.17 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Karama attack 1.17 + Foutoua defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Foutoua attack 0.98 + Al Karama defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Karama scores more

43%

level

30%

Foutoua scores more

27%

Al Karama at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Karama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff