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Al Karama vs Al Sahel — Premier League 2019

Al Karama
Al Karama
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Sahel
Al Sahel
12/8/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Khaled bin Walid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Al Karama58%
×Draw25%
Al Sahel17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Karama
1.56
Al Sahel
0.70

Al Karama creates 123% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 24 away

creates per match

Al Karama
1.17
Al Sahel
0.63

allows per match

Al Karama
0.76
Al Sahel
1.96

finishing

Al Karama+0.00on par
Al Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Karama ↓

Al Sahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Karama or draw
83%
Al Karama or Al Sahel
75%
Draw or Al Sahel
42%

Winning margin

Al Karama wins by 2+
31%
Al Sahel wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Al Karama 1+ goals
79%
Al Karama 2+ goals
46%
Al Karama 3+ goals
21%
Al Sahel 1+ goals
50%
Al Sahel 2+ goals
16%
Al Sahel 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al Karama (draw refunded)
78%
Al Sahel (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Karama at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.76 · 83 matches

Al Sahel away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.96 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Karama attack 1.17 + Al Sahel defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.56

Al Sahel attack 0.63 + Al Karama defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Al Karama scores more
58%
level
25%
Al Sahel scores more
17%

Al Karama at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Al Karama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Karama 1–0 Al Sahel

Al Karama beat Al Sahel 1-0 in Premier League on December 8, 2023.

The match was played at Khaled bin Walid Stadium in Homs.