Al Karama 3–1 Al Nawaeir: Result & Stats

Al Karama

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Al Nawaeir

9/12/2021

Premier League · Round 3Khaled bin Walid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Al Karama56%

×Draw26%

Al Nawaeir18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al KaramaExpected goals in this matchAl Nawaeir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.74

Al Karama

1.51

Al Nawaeir

0.74

Al Karama creates 104% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 26 away

1.17

creates per match

0.73

0.76

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Al Karama

1.17

Al Nawaeir

0.73

allows per match

Al Karama

0.76

Al Nawaeir

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Karama+0.00on par

Al Nawaeir+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Karama ↓

Al Nawaeir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Al Karama or draw

82%

Al Karama or Al Nawaeir

74%

Draw or Al Nawaeir

44%

Winning margin

Al Karama wins by 2+

29%

Al Nawaeir wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Al Karama 1+ goals

78%

Al Karama 2+ goals

44%

Al Karama 3+ goals

19%

Al Nawaeir 1+ goals

52%

Al Nawaeir 2+ goals

17%

Al Nawaeir 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Al Karama (draw refunded)

75%

Al Nawaeir (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Karama at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.76 · 83 matches

Al Nawaeir away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Karama attack 1.17 + Al Nawaeir defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.51

Al Nawaeir attack 0.73 + Al Karama defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Al Karama scores more

56%

level

26%

Al Nawaeir scores more

18%

Al Karama at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Al Karama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff