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Al Karama vs Al Jazira — Premier League 2019

Al Karama
Al Karama
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Jazira
Al Jazira
12/23/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Khaled bin Walid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Karama63%
×Draw23%
Al Jazira14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Karama
1.71
Al Jazira
0.65

Al Karama creates 163% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 17 away

creates per match

Al Karama
1.17
Al Jazira
0.53

allows per match

Al Karama
0.76
Al Jazira
2.24

finishing

Al Karama+0.00on par
Al Jazira+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Karama ↓

Al Jazira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Karama or draw
86%
Al Karama or Al Jazira
77%
Draw or Al Jazira
37%

Winning margin

Al Karama wins by 2+
36%
Al Jazira wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Al Karama 1+ goals
82%
Al Karama 2+ goals
51%
Al Karama 3+ goals
24%
Al Jazira 1+ goals
48%
Al Jazira 2+ goals
14%
Al Jazira 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al Karama (draw refunded)
82%
Al Jazira (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Karama at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.76 · 83 matches

Al Jazira away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Karama attack 1.17 + Al Jazira defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.71

Al Jazira attack 0.53 + Al Karama defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Al Karama scores more
63%
level
23%
Al Jazira scores more
14%

Al Karama at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Al Karama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Karama vs Al Jazira

Al Karama and Al Jazira drew 1-1 in Premier League on December 23, 2019.

The match was played at Khaled bin Walid Stadium in Homs.