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Al Karama vs Al-Horgelah — Premier League 2019

Al Karama
Al Karama
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al-Horgelah
Al-Horgelah
10/21/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Khaled bin Walid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Al Karama44%
×Draw29%
Al-Horgelah28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Karama
1.27
Al-Horgelah
0.95

Al Karama creates 34% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 26 away

creates per match

Al Karama
1.17
Al-Horgelah
1.15

allows per match

Al Karama
0.76
Al-Horgelah
1.38

finishing

Al Karama+0.00on par
Al-Horgelah+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Karama ↓

Al-Horgelah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Karama or draw
72%
Al Karama or Al-Horgelah
71%
Draw or Al-Horgelah
56%

Winning margin

Al Karama wins by 2+
20%
Al-Horgelah wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Karama 1+ goals
72%
Al Karama 2+ goals
36%
Al Karama 3+ goals
14%
Al-Horgelah 1+ goals
61%
Al-Horgelah 2+ goals
25%
Al-Horgelah 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Karama (draw refunded)
61%
Al-Horgelah (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Karama at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.76 · 83 matches

Al-Horgelah away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Karama attack 1.17 + Al-Horgelah defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Al-Horgelah attack 1.15 + Al Karama defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Karama scores more
44%
level
29%
Al-Horgelah scores more
28%

Al Karama at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Karama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Karama 1–0 Al-Horgelah

Al Karama beat Al-Horgelah 1-0 in Premier League on October 21, 2020.

The match was played at Khaled bin Walid Stadium in Homs.