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Al Kahrabaa vs Naft Maysan — Iraqi League 2025

Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
Sajjad Khalil 70'
11/3/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 6Al Kut Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Al Kahrabaa42%
×Draw26%
Naft Maysan32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Kahrabaa
1.43
Naft Maysan
1.23

Al Kahrabaa creates 16% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 42 away

creates per match

Al Kahrabaa
1.26
Naft Maysan
1.21

allows per match

Al Kahrabaa
1.26
Naft Maysan
1.60

finishing

Al Kahrabaa+0.00on par
Naft Maysan+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Kahrabaa ↓

Naft Maysan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Al Kahrabaa or draw
68%
Al Kahrabaa or Naft Maysan
74%
Draw or Naft Maysan
58%

Winning margin

Al Kahrabaa wins by 2+
20%
Naft Maysan wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al Kahrabaa 1+ goals
76%
Al Kahrabaa 2+ goals
42%
Al Kahrabaa 3+ goals
17%
Naft Maysan 1+ goals
71%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
35%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al Kahrabaa (draw refunded)
56%
Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Kahrabaa at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.26 · 43 matches

Naft Maysan away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.60 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Kahrabaa attack 1.26 + Naft Maysan defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.43

Naft Maysan attack 1.21 + Al Kahrabaa defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Kahrabaa scores more
42%
level
26%
Naft Maysan scores more
32%

Al Kahrabaa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Kahrabaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'
Sajjad Khalil

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Kahrabaa 1–0 Naft Maysan

Al Kahrabaa beat Naft Maysan 1-0 in Iraqi League on November 3, 2024.

Goals: Sajjad Khalil (70').

The match was played at Al Kut Stadium in Al Kut.