Al Kahrabaa 2–0 Naft Al-Janoob: Result & Stats

Al Kahrabaa

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Naft Al-Janoob

4/12/2025

Iraqi League · Round 27Al-Zawraa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Al Kahrabaa41%

×Draw29%

Naft Al-Janoob30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al KahrabaaExpected goals in this matchNaft Al-Janoob

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.98

Al Kahrabaa

1.21

Naft Al-Janoob

0.98

Al Kahrabaa creates 23% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 93 away

1.17

creates per match

0.88

1.07

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Al Kahrabaa

1.17

Naft Al-Janoob

0.88

allows per match

Al Kahrabaa

1.07

Naft Al-Janoob

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Kahrabaa+0.00on par

Naft Al-Janoob+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Kahrabaa ↓

Naft Al-Janoob →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Al Kahrabaa or draw

70%

Al Kahrabaa or Naft Al-Janoob

71%

Draw or Naft Al-Janoob

59%

Winning margin

Al Kahrabaa wins by 2+

18%

Naft Al-Janoob wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Al Kahrabaa 1+ goals

70%

Al Kahrabaa 2+ goals

34%

Al Kahrabaa 3+ goals

12%

Naft Al-Janoob 1+ goals

62%

Naft Al-Janoob 2+ goals

26%

Naft Al-Janoob 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Al Kahrabaa (draw refunded)

58%

Naft Al-Janoob (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Kahrabaa at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 111 matches

Naft Al-Janoob away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.24 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Kahrabaa attack 1.17 + Naft Al-Janoob defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Naft Al-Janoob attack 0.88 + Al Kahrabaa defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Kahrabaa scores more

41%

level

29%

Naft Al-Janoob scores more

30%

Al Kahrabaa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Kahrabaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff